All posts by Larry Berman

What is Keeping Larry Up at Night?

It’s not the VIX at 50+. It’s the fact that after-tax corporate profits tracked by the Federal Reserve in the national income data has not gone up in 7 years (including Trump’s ill-timed tax cut) by the way. So what’s going on here? It’s simple,

COVID-19 The Black Swan

I’ve read several research reports in the past weeks about the COVID-19 impact on supply chains and the human toll. We are all guessing—educated guesses, but guesses nonetheless. We learn a valuable lesson from Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise about prediction of