Category Archives: Behavioural Finance

What is Keeping Larry Up at Night?

It’s not the VIX at 50+. It’s the fact that after-tax corporate profits tracked by the Federal Reserve in the national income data has not gone up in 7 years (including Trump’s ill-timed tax cut) by the way. So what’s going on here? It’s simple,

2020 Outlook and 2019 Recap of Berman’s Calls

The tradition on Berman’s Call has been for me to use my last show of the year to forecast what I expect for the coming year and address any mea culpa for bad Berman Calls in 2019. I got the volatility outlook for 2019 all

Biggest Hedge Fund in the World Added a Hedge

When Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, the largest hedge fund in the world, buys put protection on the S&P 500, people should pay attention. It was all over the business news media late last week. I’ve said for years that BNN viewers should read everything

China Trade War Now Post 2020 So Focus on Currency War

President Trump is not likely going to get a trade deal with China before the next election. He basically told us that on Friday, and it’s confirmed my market chatter today. What’s plan B? Currency wars. In studying the 1987 stock market crash, there we

World Energy Supply and Demand Outlook

Basic economic analysis looks at the relationship between demand and supply. There are two major ways prices move higher. And increase in demand (the good way) and decrease in supply (the bad way) in terms of the outlook for the energy sector. Back in 2014,

Watching Technology for Signs the Rally Leadership Has Peaked?

As a classically trained technical analyst, one of the areas of study we learn when completing the Chartered Market Technician designation is an understanding of the market topping process. By comparison, it’s WAY WAY WAY easier to identify market bottoms due to the emotion capitulations

S&P 500 at 3000: Hurdle, Ceiling or Emotional Test?

Last episode we wrote about the rapid decline in earnings outlooks for the S&P 500. We focus on this benchmark because it represents about 40% of the world equity market capitalization and houses most of the largest companies in the world. The US market is