Category Archives: Geopolitics

How Do You Build in Geopolitical Risks to Your Portfolio?

The Iranian backed attack by the Houthi Rebels against critical Saudi crude infrastructure is clearly an escalation of negotiating tactics. The US led sanctions since breaking the Iran nuclear deal is economically painful for Iran. We also saw Iran flex their muscle in the Strait

When Are Interest Rates Too Low?

The ECB is expected to cut overnight rates 10 bps to -0.5% and extend their QE bond buying program at this week’s meeting. Outgoing leader Mario “Whatever it Takes Bazooka” Draghi is being replaced by Christine “Whatever it Takes TBD” Lagarde next month. The debate

China Trade War Now Post 2020 So Focus on Currency War

President Trump is not likely going to get a trade deal with China before the next election. He basically told us that on Friday, and it’s confirmed my market chatter today. What’s plan B? Currency wars. In studying the 1987 stock market crash, there we

World Energy Supply and Demand Outlook

Basic economic analysis looks at the relationship between demand and supply. There are two major ways prices move higher. And increase in demand (the good way) and decrease in supply (the bad way) in terms of the outlook for the energy sector. Back in 2014,

2019 Outlook and 2018 Recap of Berman’s Calls

If you haven’t heard me say this 100x before, or are just tuning in to hear what yet another one of these “talking heads” thinks is sure to happen in markets – let me disappoint again – NO ONE KNOWS what will happen next in