Category Archives: Geopolitics

Trump: The Trade Grinch That Stole the Christmas Rally?

Seasonality is often an important consideration in your asset allocation. So far in 2018, the seasonal pattern has not held at all. The market was strong in January, August and September, where history suggests weak markets. So far in Q4 that is an historically strong

When the Outlook is Not Clear, We Have Options!

I’ve been asked several times over the past week what happens if Trump sweeps vs. loses both houses of Congress. What if the pollsters are wrong like they were about Trump in 2016. According to Nate Silver of , the guy who was very

Eurodollar Curve Says Peak in Rates Around End of 2019?

When the market speaks it makes sense to listen. Our chart this week looks at the changes in the Eurodollar yield curve over the past year. Eurodollar futures are the backbone of the global banking system. They reflect the expectations for (LIBOR) funding rates for

Political Polarization Can’t Be Good for Growth?

I’m in Ottawa this week for some meetings with a few MPs. I’m working for sensible policy to help Canadians and to avoid a bleak fiscal future if hard decisions are not made soon. By way of disclosure so, I don’t get accused to being

Global Bond Yields on the Rise—Impact on Balanced Portfolios?

Global bond yields are moving higher and in some cases breaking to levels not seen in several years. The moves on a multi-decade scale are hardly noticeable. Japanese yields are still extraordinarily low, but are probably most important from a psychological perspective. As central banks

Outlook for Long-Term Interest Rates

Last week a very influential US Bank CEO (Jamie Dimon) warned that longer-term US interest rates would be rising significantly. I think he’s out to lunch. He does see the equity bull market extending 2 to 3 more years and thinks the economy is strong

Updated Thoughts on NAFTA and the Canadian Dollar

In the past few weeks Canada has taken a back seat on trade related foreign policy. Incoming Mexico president Lopez Obrador is very interested in doing a trade deal sooner than later even though he officially takes the reigns after the US November elections. The