Last week I spent a lot of time thinking and reading about the events of the 1987 crash. One of the catalysts for the crash back then was a heightened degree of trade deficits (sound familiar?) with a specific focus on Germany. On October 14,
Category Archives: Geopolitics
I’ve been asked several times over the past week what happens if Trump sweeps vs. loses both houses of Congress. What if the pollsters are wrong like they were about Trump in 2016. According to Nate Silver of www.fivethirtyeight.com , the guy who was very
When the market speaks it makes sense to listen. Our chart this week looks at the changes in the Eurodollar yield curve over the past year. Eurodollar futures are the backbone of the global banking system. They reflect the expectations for (LIBOR) funding rates for
I’m in Ottawa this week for some meetings with a few MPs. I’m working for sensible policy to help Canadians and to avoid a bleak fiscal future if hard decisions are not made soon. By way of disclosure so, I don’t get accused to being
Global bond yields are moving higher and in some cases breaking to levels not seen in several years. The moves on a multi-decade scale are hardly noticeable. Japanese yields are still extraordinarily low, but are probably most important from a psychological perspective. As central banks
Last week a very influential US Bank CEO (Jamie Dimon) warned that longer-term US interest rates would be rising significantly. I think he’s out to lunch. He does see the equity bull market extending 2 to 3 more years and thinks the economy is strong
In the past few weeks Canada has taken a back seat on trade related foreign policy. Incoming Mexico president Lopez Obrador is very interested in doing a trade deal sooner than later even though he officially takes the reigns after the US November elections. The
Trump’s troops were out in full force on the Sunday talk show circuit pumping the 4% GDP number that was reported for Q2 on Friday. First, the one-time items not to be repeated like the surge in soybean purchases and the tax cut induced jump
For me, revenue growth tells us much more about the quality of the market than does earnings growth. You can’t fudge revenues, though don’t tell that to Enron and Worldcom executives. Top line revenue growth is expected to be good for the next few quarters,
The organization that is the Central Bank of Central Banks just published another update on its views on cryptocurrencies that can be read here. I took the following quote out of the report as a starting point for my analysis: “The essence of good money