Category Archives: Markets Views & Analysis

Is the Long-Term Bull Market Over for Bonds?

Judging if the near 37-year bull market in interest rates is over is not a simple exercise. Many bond pundits have made the call recently. The pattern of lower yield highs and lower yield lows have continued for decades. Calling the end of this trend

A Look at One Market Breadth Indicator That’s Positive

One element of technical market analysis that is often a leading indicator is called breadth analysis. There are many different breadth indicators. Today, we look at the percentage of stocks above their own 200-day average given that we bounced off that level again last week.

The Future of Money

In 2016, Sweden introduced the idea of creating a digital currency. Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, was the first central bank in the 1660s to issue paper notes. The amount of notes and coins in circulation had been cut in half globally in the past

Why is the Yield Curve Still Flattening?

I have said many times over the years that the bond market is often the best forecaster of the economy, but it’s not typically until the yield curve inverts (when short term yields become higher than long term yields) that we must worry about what

A Look at Q1 S&P 500 Earnings. The Technology Sector is Key!

According to FactSet, 52 companies in the S&P 500 have issued negative EPS guidance and 53 companies in the S&P 500 have issued positive EPS guidance. While this sounds quite balanced, history shows that companies issuing negative EPS guidance is well below the five-year average

Will FANG Take the Market Down?

In 1994 when I did an internship on Wall Street with many of the top technical analysts I learned many important lessons. One that stands out is that a market is a sum of its parts. If you are going to forecast a market index

Should We Be Worried About the Similarities with 1987?

There has been a lot of talk recently about the similarities between the 1987 period and today. The current market volatility looks a lot like the period before the 1987 market crash. Like today, economic growth was strong, inflation pressures were rising, and the economy

Uncertainty Points to More Volatility?

Germany has finally formed a coalition government and the far-right AfD (Alternative for Deutschland) is not the official opposition. Current poling has their support now higher than Merkel’s coalition partner SPD. In Italy, we saw the Eurosceptic alternative M5S party and other hard right parties

Several Indicators Suggest Support Should Hold…For Now

There are several indicators and behaviors I like to see to suggest a trading bottom has developed. First, and most important, we need to see strong oversold conditions in market breadth indicators. One of my favorite is the McClellan Oscillator. It looks at the trend