Category Archives: Markets Views & Analysis

Market Breadth Suggests Trend is Weakening

Market breadth analysis is a key factor in determining the probability of a trend continuing. Much of what I try to do when evaluating market risk is to assess a probability of the market going up versus going down over my time horizon, which tends

China A-Shares Inclusion in Emerging Market Indexes

On June 1, 2018, MSCI added 234 Chinese A-Shares into the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. A shares trade in Shanghai and Shenzhen and have historically only been available to mainland citizens. This is expected to increase China’s weight in the index modestly from 31 per cent

How to Hedge Credit Risk

It should be no surprise to Berman’s Call viewers that I think the sheer amount of debt in the world is problematic. History teaches us that the bigger the percentage of debt compared to the size of the economy measured by gross domestic product (GDP),

Is the Long-Term Bull Market Over for Bonds?

Judging if the near 37-year bull market in interest rates is over is not a simple exercise. Many bond pundits have made the call recently. The pattern of lower yield highs and lower yield lows have continued for decades. Calling the end of this trend

A Look at One Market Breadth Indicator That’s Positive

One element of technical market analysis that is often a leading indicator is called breadth analysis. There are many different breadth indicators. Today, we look at the percentage of stocks above their own 200-day average given that we bounced off that level again last week.

The Future of Money

In 2016, Sweden introduced the idea of creating a digital currency. Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, was the first central bank in the 1660s to issue paper notes. The amount of notes and coins in circulation had been cut in half globally in the past

Why is the Yield Curve Still Flattening?

I have said many times over the years that the bond market is often the best forecaster of the economy, but it’s not typically until the yield curve inverts (when short term yields become higher than long term yields) that we must worry about what