Category Archives: Economics & Fundamentals

2019 Outlook and 2018 Recap of Berman’s Calls

If you haven’t heard me say this 100x before, or are just tuning in to hear what yet another one of these “talking heads” thinks is sure to happen in markets – let me disappoint again – NO ONE KNOWS what will happen next in

Outlook for Long-Term Interest Rates

Last week a very influential US Bank CEO (Jamie Dimon) warned that longer-term US interest rates would be rising significantly. I think he’s out to lunch. He does see the equity bull market extending 2 to 3 more years and thinks the economy is strong

Market Breadth Suggests Trend is Weakening

Market breadth analysis is a key factor in determining the probability of a trend continuing. Much of what I try to do when evaluating market risk is to assess a probability of the market going up versus going down over my time horizon, which tends

China A-Shares Inclusion in Emerging Market Indexes

On June 1, 2018, MSCI added 234 Chinese A-Shares into the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. A shares trade in Shanghai and Shenzhen and have historically only been available to mainland citizens. This is expected to increase China’s weight in the index modestly from 31 per cent