As the markets now enter a period of high volatility, I ponder whether they are sensing the onset of the next recession. It’s almost certain that we will see a global recession within the next two years. The history of U.S. recessions shows the range of expansions between two and 10 years since the Second World War. The longest was 120 months that ended officially in the first quarter of 2001. That 10-year expansion was driven by the Internet boom and the technology revolution. Free money and massive debt is the current tailwind, so the quality of this cycle is fundamentally weak.

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