Category Archives: Economics & Fundamentals

Should You Have Long Bonds in Your Portfolio?

From a yield perspective, long U.S. treasuries (TLT) yield about 2.8 per cent and long Canadas yield about 2.00 per cent (ZFL). This compares to a less than two-per-cent yield for the U.S. equity (ZUE) market and a 2.7 per cent yield for the S&P

Assessing the French Election Risk to Markets

The French elections have the potential to really shake the Trump rally. Those that say we should ignore it because it would be little more than a ‘Brexit’ result where markets dipped for a few days, then rallied strong, are naive. If France leaves the

It’s Time to Get Defensive After a Troubling Budget

It seems clear the Liberals do not have an Action Plan for Canada. Since the 2016 budget, the private sector has downgraded the outlook for GDP growth in Canada. In other words, SELL, SELL, SELL. Either they have no confidence in Liberal policies or the

Short the TSX if This Budget is as Bad as I Fear

I’ve been suggesting for years that the debt and deficits are increasingly going to hurt economic growth. I’m fearful that the Liberal budget coming down this week will only make things worse for Canada in relation to our major U.S. trading partner. The government will

Why Interest Rates Won’t Likely Rise Much

This week I will be addressing the Manning Centre Conference in Ottawa on the topic of debt, demographics and the long-term implications for Canada. Having followed global financial markets for the past three decades, I’ve seen several bulls and bears. The one thing that has

Are Markets Overshooting Reality?

One always needs to tweak the current forecast for unknowns. Enter the Trump administration and the general “animal spirits” that have been released as it pertains to expectations for lower taxes, higher government spending and job growth. So how much are those “animal spirits” –