From a yield perspective, long U.S. treasuries (TLT) yield about 2.8 per cent and long Canadas yield about 2.00 per cent (ZFL). This compares to a less than two-per-cent yield for the U.S. equity (ZUE) market and a 2.7 per cent yield for the S&P
Category Archives: Economics & Fundamentals
The French elections have the potential to really shake the Trump rally. Those that say we should ignore it because it would be little more than a ‘Brexit’ result where markets dipped for a few days, then rallied strong, are naive. If France leaves the
I have heard some say that I should change the name of the show to “Bear-man’s Call” because I’m too bearish all the time. On the 10th anniversary of the show, I wanted to clarify why some may have that perception. Simply, I consider the
It seems clear the Liberals do not have an Action Plan for Canada. Since the 2016 budget, the private sector has downgraded the outlook for GDP growth in Canada. In other words, SELL, SELL, SELL. Either they have no confidence in Liberal policies or the
As a follow up to this week’s Globe and Mail article, I wanted to look at evaluating longer-term market risk from the perspective on what is called global macro investing. Looking at known event risks and assessing what impact their outcome might have on various
I’ve been suggesting for years that the debt and deficits are increasingly going to hurt economic growth. I’m fearful that the Liberal budget coming down this week will only make things worse for Canada in relation to our major U.S. trading partner. The government will
This week I will be addressing the Manning Centre Conference in Ottawa on the topic of debt, demographics and the long-term implications for Canada. Having followed global financial markets for the past three decades, I’ve seen several bulls and bears. The one thing that has
The Trump bump in the market since the U.S. election last year has been one of the most debated topics in business media history. He won, in part, because Congress has the lowest approval rating in history, and people wanted change. We need dramatic change
The outlook for the S&P 500 in 2017 is probably not as rosy as the post Trump rally would suggest. The sentiment around the increased profitability of US companies with the corporate tax cuts is somewhat misguided. According to data prepared by the Bank Credit
One always needs to tweak the current forecast for unknowns. Enter the Trump administration and the general “animal spirits” that have been released as it pertains to expectations for lower taxes, higher government spending and job growth. So how much are those “animal spirits” –