Yes. In general, the configuration of Congress relative to the White House has a meaningful impact on spending patterns, which has longer-term implications. The Trump tax cuts in 2018 had a meaningful impact on corporate profits for example. The way it’s looking today, a Biden
At 8:52am on Friday Oct 21, S&P e-mini futures were down about 1% and the US Dollar was very strong versus most currencies. Many have wondered for months what it would take for the FOMC to understand the strong US Dollar was a problem. Maybe
The PRO-EYEs indicator was made available on-line for BNN viewers to get a lens into my macro view of markets. The tactical component is made up of 12 well-known technical indicators of trend, sentiment, breadth and seasonality. All may have heard of the CNN Fear
We were asked recently in social media if a balanced ETFs like HBAL, VBAL, XBAL, ZBAL are good for passive investors. The answer is yes, they do a good job at what they are designed to do. But in order to deliver goals for your
We think that Powell will do his best this week to regain credibility of the FOMC as an inflation fighter having fallen so far behind the curve earlier this year and last. Several FOMC members went out of their way since the minutes hit (Aug
By all metrics, we are in an end of cycle bear market. The yield curve (the cost of money) is our best leading indicator. Historically, bull markets have almost always ended with a recession. There have been exceptions with the market crash in 1987 for
The headline number is very misleading. It makes it look like all is fine. A peak inside suggests that the data is still very skewed from COVID impacts to sectors. Sectors that were boosted by massive stimulus now gone, and sectors that are reopening versus
It’s not a high enough quality signal to suggest the cycle bottom is in, but it does suggest a higher degree of a selling climax and the potential for a low point for at least a few months. Someone tweeted at us last week that
The breakeven spread is the implied rate of inflation between nominal bonds and inflation protection bonds (TIPs. Real Return). The breakeven rate is a market-based price of inflation expectations. We can see by looking at the 2-to-5-year part of the curve that expectations have not
There was a chart making the rounds last week put out by JP Morgan prior to the absolutely terrible University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers that came out Friday. The official government numbers from the Conference Board are not nearly as dire. Sentiment levels have