Liberty Street Economics is the research arm of the New York Federal Reserve Bank. In August, they conducted their monthly survey of consumer expectations (since June 2013). They ask about many aspects of consumer behaviour, but here they focused on short and intermediate inflation expectations.
Probably not much is the answer. You should rarely adjust your long-term goals for short-term noise. However, to the extent that the NDP force the Liberals to move more to the left on tax increases (new revenues), it could matter for some that are overweight
As a value and growth at a reasonable price manager we are challenged by markets that have stretched valuations. One measure that is at all time extremes (for the S&P 500) is the price of the market relative to sales. The following is an excerpt
The VIX curve has flattened notably in the past few weeks. When the VIX curve flattens, it means that investors are paying up for protection in nearby months. Why? The policy mistake in Afghanistan in recent weeks has weighed on Biden’s approval. At the same
The Fed is inching closer to reducing stimulus (debt monetization). We expect the first taper will come in Q4. The plan will likely reduce $15B per month over the course of 8 annual FOMC meetings so that the Federal Reserve will not buy anymore Treasuries
The Fed is inching closer to reducing stimulus (debt monetization). Congress is getting antsy about all the spending, but knows that an infrastructure bill is needed. The progressive Left in the House wants even more. Deficits going forward will be north of one trillion annually
The World Gold Council mid-year outlook suggests that higher rates running faster than inflation hurt in the first half. Current expectations for real yields (inflation versus nominal yields) now suggest gold should be on the podium. That fact that gold is not shinning requires a
The greater the number of stocks participating in the trend is bullish. There is no debate about it. When fewer larger stocks are lifting markets, the signal is that of a later stage more defensive rally (buy big safe blue-chip quality stocks). This does not
Expectations for 2021 earnings and beyond are robust to say the least. History suggests such a high bar is harder to jump. As a reminder, the market prices in forward expectations and in order to do even better, results need to beat expectations. That will
Oil markets were devastated by COVID in 2020, but it is really Environment Social Governance (ESG) investing trends that has had a bigger (longer-term) impact. Most understand that the future of energy creation will be in renewables. I am not sure transatlantic flights will every