This chart of US CPI Inflation has been making the rounds for a few weeks. It shows the year-on-year percentage chage from 1966 to 1982 (blue) overlayed on the past decade (orange). Is this mearly a coincidence? Or could it be a pattern of longer-term
Bare with me, I’m pontificating a bit here in front of NVDAs (invidia latin for envy) earnings. I’m sure many will disagree. It’s a great company, but what is it worth in 5-10-15 years? I would argue, about what we are paying for it now
The Berman’s Call Pro-Eyes (Probability Return on Investment Index) indicators have moved into the highly cautionary range. The last time the index was at these levels was in November 21. Historically, forward based drawdowns within the next year are about 11%. This 20-factor model looks
The Federal Reserve aggressively started to buy assets on their balance sheet to stimulate asset markets (read the economy) in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis. The Federal reserve has always used US Treasury Bonds and Bills (repo market) to help control the money
The Treasury General Account (TGA) could be empty by the middle of June or slightly earlier and all magical bookkeeping tricks may have been exhausted (these are all guestimates only). The TGA has 155B left and between now and the June 15th corp tax day,
For the vast majority of investors, it should not matter much at all, but for the day traders, pay some attention. According to data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., by the third quarter of 2022, 0DTE (zero day to expiry) contracts accounted for more
The history of forward guidance for the FOMC started in February 1994 under Greenspan. The March 22 meeting currently has the probably of a 25 bps rate hike at 60% with less than certainty that we see any more rate hikes this year. By December,
For global equity markets, 2023 promises more of the same as the central bank narrative on tamping down inflation remains a top priority. The focus of central banks for most of the year will be to kill inflation. Unfortunately, that likely leads to a recession
The lower part of our featured chart shows the US 3-month versus 10-year yield curve (left side scale). When some economists are trying to forecast a recession, the relationship between funding rates and lending rates (the yield curve) is a major factor. When this yield
Growth at a reasonable price and relative value are two core principles that I’ve always espoused in my investment philosophy. They come in handy this time of year for tax loss selling bargains. This week in our weekly webinar, we take a bigger picture look