Predictit is a crowdsource betting site that uses Vegas type betting odds to take wagers on outcomes. What we are hearing and seeing in the local election ground games seem quite different. And then there is the major trust factor in the polling that was
We are going to get another stimulus bill. We think Trump needs it more than Dems to keep the stock market supported on Nov 3rd. History suggests the markets do not like the potential for the incumbent to lose the elections and the uncertainty of
According to Wikipedia: The Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution was adopted on July 9, 1868, as one of the Reconstruction Amendments. Arguably one of the most consequential amendments, it addresses citizenship rights and equal protection under the law and was proposed in response
The amount of options bought for expiry this week is some of the big tech names like AAPL and TSLA are huge. When an option is bought, the market maker typically hedges by buying the underlying stock. When the option expires, that hedge gets sold
The quality investment factor is shinning in the past few years. These are companies that are good corporate stewards of their balance sheets, throw off lots of free cash low, have much more stable earnings than most, and do not use excessive leverage (as much
The great thing about ETFs and index tracking is that you own the entire index and that you benefit from survivorship bias. The good companies stay in the index, the improving companies get added to the index, and the weak ones drop off. The bad
The Bank of Canada has an excellent webpage that can help investors understand what factors move the Canadian dollar. Canada is about 3% of the equity world and about 5% of the bond world, so the majority of investment opportunity resides in foreign currencies. This
The Trump Administration, for all it’s challenges, scored a victory this week on the foreign policy file. It probably does not move the disenfranchised American swing voter much, but it is a much-needed small win for the COVID beaten-up profile of the President. We surveyed
Back in February we featured COVID-19 risks to markets and wondered why the market did not care much. The fear of missing out based on Fed liquidity feeding markets was a significant factor. We look at the hope for a vaccine today and wonder how
With gold making all-time highs, I thought I would update some of my thinking for followers. Asset (commodity) prices move based on the fundamentals of supply and demand distorted by periods of the manic speculation of fear and greed. The rationale for the investment (buy,