The Treasury General Account (TGA) could be empty by the middle of June or slightly earlier and all magical bookkeeping tricks may have been exhausted (these are all guestimates only). The TGA has 155B left and between now and the June 15th corp tax day,
For the vast majority of investors, it should not matter much at all, but for the day traders, pay some attention. According to data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., by the third quarter of 2022, 0DTE (zero day to expiry) contracts accounted for more
The history of forward guidance for the FOMC started in February 1994 under Greenspan. The March 22 meeting currently has the probably of a 25 bps rate hike at 60% with less than certainty that we see any more rate hikes this year. By December,
For global equity markets, 2023 promises more of the same as the central bank narrative on tamping down inflation remains a top priority. The focus of central banks for most of the year will be to kill inflation. Unfortunately, that likely leads to a recession
The lower part of our featured chart shows the US 3-month versus 10-year yield curve (left side scale). When some economists are trying to forecast a recession, the relationship between funding rates and lending rates (the yield curve) is a major factor. When this yield
Growth at a reasonable price and relative value are two core principles that I’ve always espoused in my investment philosophy. They come in handy this time of year for tax loss selling bargains. This week in our weekly webinar, we take a bigger picture look
Following last week’s surprising US CPI report where the actual reported numbers were lower than even the most optimistic forecast, we expect members of the FOMC will recognize the need to soon slow the pace of rate hikes. What all this means is that there
This week COP27 takes place in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. This annual event, the “Conference of the Parties” or “COP” brings together the governments which have signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol or the Paris Agreement. World leaders, ministers,
Yes. In general, the configuration of Congress relative to the White House has a meaningful impact on spending patterns, which has longer-term implications. The Trump tax cuts in 2018 had a meaningful impact on corporate profits for example. The way it’s looking today, a Biden
At 8:52am on Friday Oct 21, S&P e-mini futures were down about 1% and the US Dollar was very strong versus most currencies. Many have wondered for months what it would take for the FOMC to understand the strong US Dollar was a problem. Maybe