The history of commodity cycles can last for years. There is likely more to go in the current boom part of the cycle. However, they have shown strong patterns of boom and bust over decades. Sometimes it is supply shortages in the case of weather
All posts by Larry Berman
The big tech giants known as the FANGMAN stocks that make up about 25% of the S&P 500 mostly reported great earnings and almost in every case, the initial reaction was sold into. Add in Tesla, Visa and Mastercard as well and you have a
The next two weeks hosts the bulk of earnings season. Big cap technology is always an important feature as it has been leading earnings growth for many years. According to the Bloomberg bottom up Q1 consensus, the Technology sector is a significant driver of total
The regulators tell financial advisors that their clients’ need to have portfolios linked to their risk tolerance. Historically, they was accomplished with fixed income in portfolios. The rule of thumb was that the older you are, the safer your portfolio should be, the more fixed-income
Members of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) told us last week they are VERY bullish, but not all of our PRO-EYEs metrics are lined up that way…yet. The last several times our Berman’s Call PRO-EYEs composite hit these levels, the odds of a
According to S&P Global, at the start of the year, bottom-up estimate expectations for 2021 were about $164. Bloomberg consensus had similar numbers. FactSet, had the number at $167 to start the year. They are currently at $176. The current numbers for 2022 are about
Antitrust issues have been a market factor since the 1887. A company gets too big and it can hurt consumers. There is a basic history lesson here. In recent years, big tech MSFT, GOOGL, FB and others have been subject of Congressional crosshairs. Jeff Bezos
This week marks the 14th anniversary of Berman’s Call on BNN. Thank you! Seasonality patterns show the longer-term biases markets have exhibited historically. There is no guarantee these work every year. When we combine seasonal factors with other (none related) factors like the recent $1.9T
There have been changes in demographics trends (due to COVID) and not just because of the grim death toll. We have looked at the dire (ageing) demographics before, but we are seeing an acceleration in declining birth rates after measures limiting social contacts and the
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) updates the 10-year budget forecast each month. The current $1.9T COVID relief Bill has not been signed into law yet, so it is not in these numbers, but it will make the debt/deficit numbers worse. We expect the Biden Administration