Category Archives: Markets Views & Analysis

It’s a Bear Market, is it Time to Sell High?

By all metrics, we are in an end of cycle bear market. The yield curve (the cost of money) is our best leading indicator. Historically, bull markets have almost always ended with a recession. There have been exceptions with the market crash in 1987 for

Market Based Pricing Suggests We May Have Seen Peak Inflation

The breakeven spread is the implied rate of inflation between nominal bonds and inflation protection bonds (TIPs. Real Return). The breakeven rate is a market-based price of inflation expectations. We can see by looking at the 2-to-5-year part of the curve that expectations have not

How High Can The Market Bounce?

In looking at how high the market can bounce here; we should look at the potential of the technology sector that has been leading the downside. We saw a ferocious rally in March (about 17%) before the 200-day average turned the QQQs back. While the

Is it Time for a Recessionary Investment Factor Tilt?

I have featured Research Affiliates articles before and I have discussed factor based investing tilts before. It would seem we are on the cusp of a shift in the underlying economy into a recessionary or at least slow growth phase. What type of stocks historically

Yield Curve Business Cycle Indicator Says No Recession Imminent

The history of Fed rate hike cycles and recessions are clear. The FOMC causes every recession by fighting inflation—it’s their mandate. So what makes them think this time they can generate a soft landing with the most complicated combination of debt, demographics and geopolitics we’ve