The history of forward guidance for the FOMC started in February 1994 under Greenspan. The March 22 meeting currently has the probably of a 25 bps rate hike at 60% with less than certainty that we see any more rate hikes this year. By December,
Category Archives: Markets Views & Analysis
Growth at a reasonable price and relative value are two core principles that I’ve always espoused in my investment philosophy. They come in handy this time of year for tax loss selling bargains. This week in our weekly webinar, we take a bigger picture look
By all metrics, we are in an end of cycle bear market. The yield curve (the cost of money) is our best leading indicator. Historically, bull markets have almost always ended with a recession. There have been exceptions with the market crash in 1987 for
The headline number is very misleading. It makes it look like all is fine. A peak inside suggests that the data is still very skewed from COVID impacts to sectors. Sectors that were boosted by massive stimulus now gone, and sectors that are reopening versus
It’s not a high enough quality signal to suggest the cycle bottom is in, but it does suggest a higher degree of a selling climax and the potential for a low point for at least a few months. Someone tweeted at us last week that
The breakeven spread is the implied rate of inflation between nominal bonds and inflation protection bonds (TIPs. Real Return). The breakeven rate is a market-based price of inflation expectations. We can see by looking at the 2-to-5-year part of the curve that expectations have not
In looking at how high the market can bounce here; we should look at the potential of the technology sector that has been leading the downside. We saw a ferocious rally in March (about 17%) before the 200-day average turned the QQQs back. While the
I have featured Research Affiliates articles before and I have discussed factor based investing tilts before. It would seem we are on the cusp of a shift in the underlying economy into a recessionary or at least slow growth phase. What type of stocks historically
One thing we can promise in financial markets is that past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future. Berman’s Call officially launched in its current half hour format in late March 2007. Some may recall that I did a 5-minute interview format that
The history of Fed rate hike cycles and recessions are clear. The FOMC causes every recession by fighting inflation—it’s their mandate. So what makes them think this time they can generate a soft landing with the most complicated combination of debt, demographics and geopolitics we’ve