Category Archives: Markets Views & Analysis

How Can the Fed Engineer a Soft Landing

The markets did not like the hawkish fedspeak last week. Bond yield ripped higher and are about to break key yield support in the 10-year. The market narrative is debating the 2017-2018 dual policy of rate hikes at the same time they were reducing the

Tis the Season to Pick Up Some Tax Loss Bargains

My rule of thumb here, and always, is that you have to fundamentally want to own the stock (or ETF). In our stock selection process, we filter the main ETFs that represent the major indexes and remove the bottom half of the index that does

Going for Gold, but Not on the Podium

The World Gold Council mid-year outlook suggests that higher rates running faster than inflation hurt in the first half. Current expectations for real yields (inflation versus nominal yields) now suggest gold should be on the podium. That fact that gold is not shinning requires a

High Bar Set for US Earnings Quarter

Expectations for 2021 earnings and beyond are robust to say the least. History suggests such a high bar is harder to jump. As a reminder, the market prices in forward expectations and in order to do even better, results need to beat expectations. That will

Warning: The Making of the Mother of All Crashes!

The famed fund manager Michael Burry featured in “The Big Short,” warned last week loses on crypto and meme stocks could be more than the GDP of some countries. Crypto, Meme Stocks: Michael Burry Warns About ‘Mother of All Crashes’ – Bloomberg We look at

Are Stock Buybacks Making Inequality Issues Worse?

There is a significant shift developing towards minimum tax rates and for many companies to pay their far share. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently achieved an agreement within the G-7 backing a global minimum tax rate of 15%. G7 backs Biden’s sweeping overhaul of global

Gold at Important Inflection Point: Buy or Sell?

When it comes to ex-anti forecasting, time frame is everything. As much as the industry preaches that timing does not work, decision making about risk and return has everything to do with timing. The first chart we look at of gold bullion spot price in