Category Archives: Markets Views & Analysis

Seasonality and Stimulus Supportive for Q2

This week marks the 14th anniversary of Berman’s Call on BNN. Thank you! Seasonality patterns show the longer-term biases markets have exhibited historically. There is no guarantee these work every year. When we combine seasonal factors with other (none related) factors like the recent $1.9T

Why the Fed Will Not Likely Let Rates Go Up (Much More)

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) updates the 10-year budget forecast each month. The current $1.9T COVID relief Bill has not been signed into law yet, so it is not in these numbers, but it will make the debt/deficit numbers worse. We expect the Biden Administration

The Bond Vigilante is Back

The Fed’s balance sheet is massive. The central banks of the world will most likely win the short-term fights in this day and age of unlimited money printing. Recent action in the bond market suggests we may see a knock down battle at the O.K.

What is Volatility Telling us About Markets

Another factor in our Probable Return on Investment Index, PRO-II (pronounced Pro Eyes) Indicator is volatility. We look at two aspects: 1. Expectations for volatility for the next month vs. volatility 4 months from now. 2. Current level of volatility relative to recent trends (quarterly

What Does Market Breadth Tell Us About When We Buy The Dip?

All my valuation models are still off the charts extreme, which means that longer-term forward based returns are likely well below average and correction risks are elevated. Economic conditions overall are supported by massive expectations for more stimulus and central bank support. This factor could/should

Credit Markets Not Pricing Economic Risks Correctly

The continued saga over the central bank printing press is creating a degree of moral hazard never seen before. In the S&P 500, there are about 10% of companies that do not earn enough to cover their interest payments and about 150 that are not

Liquidity Driven Market About to Have Less Liquidity

Basic economics is the analysis of supply and demand. For markets, we get the added layer of fear and greed or the emotional quotient. The emotional aspect is what causes the extremes. Liquidity analysis we are considering here is more about the quality aspect. For

Speculation in Call Volume Hits All-Time Extremes

With options expiry this week, we wanted to have a look at the impact it’s having on markets. IT’S HUGE. In the past week we have seen all-time call volume records challenged (viewers can follow the CBOE data here). Seems the new stimulus checks are