Category Archives: Geopolitics

The Stock Market Needs a Stimulus Bill

We are going to get another stimulus bill. We think Trump needs it more than Dems to keep the stock market supported on Nov 3rd. History suggests the markets do not like the potential for the incumbent to lose the elections and the uncertainty of

A Peace Dividend is Almost Always Bullish

The Trump Administration, for all it’s challenges, scored a victory this week on the foreign policy file. It probably does not move the disenfranchised American swing voter much, but it is a much-needed small win for the COVID beaten-up profile of the President. We surveyed

Vaccine Timeline vs. Election Timeline

Back in February we featured COVID-19 risks to markets and wondered why the market did not care much. The fear of missing out based on Fed liquidity feeding markets was a significant factor. We look at the hope for a vaccine today and wonder how

Profit Margin Forecast Does Not Support Market Rally

It’s important to understand what happens to profit margins in a recession. And make no mistake, we are very early in the recession that will most likely last well into 2021 in a best-case scenario. The hope for recovery based on record amounts of liquidity