Predictit is a crowdsource betting site that uses Vegas type betting odds to take wagers on outcomes. What we are hearing and seeing in the local election ground games seem quite different. And then there is the major trust factor in the polling that was
We are going to get another stimulus bill. We think Trump needs it more than Dems to keep the stock market supported on Nov 3rd. History suggests the markets do not like the potential for the incumbent to lose the elections and the uncertainty of
According to Wikipedia: The Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution was adopted on July 9, 1868, as one of the Reconstruction Amendments. Arguably one of the most consequential amendments, it addresses citizenship rights and equal protection under the law and was proposed in response
The Trump Administration, for all it’s challenges, scored a victory this week on the foreign policy file. It probably does not move the disenfranchised American swing voter much, but it is a much-needed small win for the COVID beaten-up profile of the President. We surveyed
Back in February we featured COVID-19 risks to markets and wondered why the market did not care much. The fear of missing out based on Fed liquidity feeding markets was a significant factor. We look at the hope for a vaccine today and wonder how
Ray Dalio has recently put out some research on the rise and fall of reserve currency status. You can read all the details here and here. What caught my eye and is most interesting is part of the current battle between China and the US
Joe Biden formally announced parts of his economic policy on July 9th. His policies are listed here. As I have said before, I’m not a supporter of extreme left or right policies. I’m far more a centrist that believes in smaller government. So I’m not
Remember Enron, Bernie Madoff, Worldcom… In what has to be a colossal poster child for how laughable the audit process can be, Ernst & Young, accused their client Wirecard of “an elaborate and sophisticated fraud” that allowed more than $2 billion to go missing. E&Y
It’s important to understand what happens to profit margins in a recession. And make no mistake, we are very early in the recession that will most likely last well into 2021 in a best-case scenario. The hope for recovery based on record amounts of liquidity
Ronald Reagan was shot 69 days after inauguration. The former Screen Actors Guild liberal leaning union leader turned conservative used the massive sentiment of the event as a catalyst to launch the Reagan Revolution. He boosted military spending, cut taxes, reduced federal spending, and reduced