Category Archives: Geopolitics

Uncertainty Demands Optionality in Your Portfolio

So how do you play the uncertain election outcome. Here’s what I’m doing in my (non-public) client portfolios. Most standard mutual funds cannot do these types of strategies. They typically fall in to the category called alternatives. Ratio put spreads This is a technique that

Social Media, Big Data, Big Tech and Anti-Trust

There is little doubt that when you are not paying for a service, you are the product. Have a look at the SOCL Global X Social Media ETF and the top holdings. How many of these services do you use? Ask yourself how much you

The Stock Market Needs a Stimulus Bill

We are going to get another stimulus bill. We think Trump needs it more than Dems to keep the stock market supported on Nov 3rd. History suggests the markets do not like the potential for the incumbent to lose the elections and the uncertainty of

A Peace Dividend is Almost Always Bullish

The Trump Administration, for all it’s challenges, scored a victory this week on the foreign policy file. It probably does not move the disenfranchised American swing voter much, but it is a much-needed small win for the COVID beaten-up profile of the President. We surveyed

Vaccine Timeline vs. Election Timeline

Back in February we featured COVID-19 risks to markets and wondered why the market did not care much. The fear of missing out based on Fed liquidity feeding markets was a significant factor. We look at the hope for a vaccine today and wonder how