Category Archives: Geopolitics

Powell’s Dovish Hope for Soft Landing is Not Realistic

The lower part of our featured chart shows the US 3-month versus 10-year yield curve (left side scale). When some economists are trying to forecast a recession, the relationship between funding rates and lending rates (the yield curve) is a major factor. When this yield

The World Needs Options, COP27 and Energy Exposure in your Portfolio

This week COP27 takes place in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. This annual event, the “Conference of the Parties” or “COP” brings together the governments which have signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol or the Paris Agreement. World leaders, ministers,

Does the US Election Outcome Matter for Markets?

Yes. In general, the configuration of Congress relative to the White House has a meaningful impact on spending patterns, which has longer-term implications. The Trump tax cuts in 2018 had a meaningful impact on corporate profits for example. The way it’s looking today, a Biden

Did the FOMC Hint at a Pivot Last week?

At 8:52am on Friday Oct 21, S&P e-mini futures were down about 1% and the US Dollar was very strong versus most currencies. Many have wondered for months what it would take for the FOMC to understand the strong US Dollar was a problem. Maybe

Keep Your Eye on Long Term Investment Opportunities

The tragedy of war is difficult from a human toll perspective. I recall having tears in my eyes trying to give investment advice in the days and weeks following September 11, 2001. The lessons of past tragedies remind us to keep focus on your longer-term