When money comes out of equity markets it typically goes into (the relative safety) of fixed-income markets. The flight to safety (historically) is generally into G7 debt markets and the strongest and larger economies of the US, Germany, and Japan. Switzerland, not an official G-20
It’s not a surprise that I have been in the camp where traditional energy demand would be replaced by low carbon alternatives over time. The vast majority of people believe that we should do something about climate change (me too!!!). So longer-term, the energy sector
We are about 1 year from the 2020 US election. From our view, the market is so focused on US-China trade, it cannot see the forest through the trees. A regime change in the US could have massive market implications that are nowhere near priced
A minority government scenario appears most likely. It’s too close to call according to most polls. The combination of a minority government is also unclear. Markets do not like uncertainty and uncertainty is the most likely outcome. My expectation is in line with that of
As a macro-based investor, I’ve always been much more focused on top down policies and themes that move economies— tax policies, regulations, job growth, environmental impact, all the way to the uncertainty of leadership change— rather than the minutiae of the latest quarterly report. In
The repurchase “repo” market is the function that deals with cash management in the bank-to-bank funding markets. You may have heard there have been some issues in recent weeks. It’s nothing investors need to worry about today, but it will be when the economy gets
The Iranian backed attack by the Houthi Rebels against critical Saudi crude infrastructure is clearly an escalation of negotiating tactics. The US led sanctions since breaking the Iran nuclear deal is economically painful for Iran. We also saw Iran flex their muscle in the Strait
The ECB is expected to cut overnight rates 10 bps to -0.5% and extend their QE bond buying program at this week’s meeting. Outgoing leader Mario “Whatever it Takes Bazooka” Draghi is being replaced by Christine “Whatever it Takes TBD” Lagarde next month. The debate
President Trump is not likely going to get a trade deal with China before the next election. He basically told us that on Friday, and it’s confirmed my market chatter today. What’s plan B? Currency wars. In studying the 1987 stock market crash, there we
Basic economic analysis looks at the relationship between demand and supply. There are two major ways prices move higher. And increase in demand (the good way) and decrease in supply (the bad way) in terms of the outlook for the energy sector. Back in 2014,