The VIX curve has flattened notably in the past few weeks. When the VIX curve flattens, it means that investors are paying up for protection in nearby months. Why? The policy mistake in Afghanistan in recent weeks has weighed on Biden’s approval. At the same
Oil markets were devastated by COVID in 2020, but it is really Environment Social Governance (ESG) investing trends that has had a bigger (longer-term) impact. Most understand that the future of energy creation will be in renewables. I am not sure transatlantic flights will every
The natural rate of growth for an economy is a combination of how many workers there are (population) and how productive they are working (output per unit of labour costs). Simply put, how many widgets do we produce and how many workers do we have
Antitrust issues have been a market factor since the 1887. A company gets too big and it can hurt consumers. There is a basic history lesson here. In recent years, big tech MSFT, GOOGL, FB and others have been subject of Congressional crosshairs. Jeff Bezos
There have been changes in demographics trends (due to COVID) and not just because of the grim death toll. We have looked at the dire (ageing) demographics before, but we are seeing an acceleration in declining birth rates after measures limiting social contacts and the
The next indicator in our PRO-II (Pro-Eyes) series looks at seasonality patterns. Like many indicators, they tend to be relatively short-term in nature and scope. Seasonality is one of them. This can be helpful for tactical trades or timing of potential entries into expected periods
So how do you play the uncertain election outcome. Here’s what I’m doing in my (non-public) client portfolios. Most standard mutual funds cannot do these types of strategies. They typically fall in to the category called alternatives. Ratio put spreads This is a technique that
There is little doubt that when you are not paying for a service, you are the product. Have a look at the SOCL Global X Social Media ETF and the top holdings. How many of these services do you use? Ask yourself how much you
Predictit is a crowdsource betting site that uses Vegas type betting odds to take wagers on outcomes. What we are hearing and seeing in the local election ground games seem quite different. And then there is the major trust factor in the polling that was
We are going to get another stimulus bill. We think Trump needs it more than Dems to keep the stock market supported on Nov 3rd. History suggests the markets do not like the potential for the incumbent to lose the elections and the uncertainty of