By all metrics, we are in an end of cycle bear market. The yield curve (the cost of money) is our best leading indicator. Historically, bull markets have almost always ended with a recession. There have been exceptions with the market crash in 1987 for
The headline number is very misleading. It makes it look like all is fine. A peak inside suggests that the data is still very skewed from COVID impacts to sectors. Sectors that were boosted by massive stimulus now gone, and sectors that are reopening versus
It’s not a high enough quality signal to suggest the cycle bottom is in, but it does suggest a higher degree of a selling climax and the potential for a low point for at least a few months. Someone tweeted at us last week that
The breakeven spread is the implied rate of inflation between nominal bonds and inflation protection bonds (TIPs. Real Return). The breakeven rate is a market-based price of inflation expectations. We can see by looking at the 2-to-5-year part of the curve that expectations have not
There was a chart making the rounds last week put out by JP Morgan prior to the absolutely terrible University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers that came out Friday. The official government numbers from the Conference Board are not nearly as dire. Sentiment levels have
In looking at how high the market can bounce here; we should look at the potential of the technology sector that has been leading the downside. We saw a ferocious rally in March (about 17%) before the 200-day average turned the QQQs back. While the
Maybe, the answer is maybe. Last week I suggested that Crypto and Bitcoin was a Ponzi Scheme. The security regulators official definition can be found here. Let me rephrase. It’s not a Ponzi Scheme (per se), but it is worth only what the next person
A Barron’s article over the weekend based, in part, on some research by Ken Pucker, a senior lecturer at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, suggests investors are not getting better results. Pucker says that ESG funds don’t systematically deliver alpha (excess return relative to
I have featured Research Affiliates articles before and I have discussed factor based investing tilts before. It would seem we are on the cusp of a shift in the underlying economy into a recessionary or at least slow growth phase. What type of stocks historically
One thing we can promise in financial markets is that past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future. Berman’s Call officially launched in its current half hour format in late March 2007. Some may recall that I did a 5-minute interview format that