The breakeven spread is the implied rate of inflation between nominal bonds and inflation protection bonds (TIPs. Real Return). The breakeven rate is a market-based price of inflation expectations. We can see by looking at the 2-to-5-year part of the curve that expectations have not
There was a chart making the rounds last week put out by JP Morgan prior to the absolutely terrible University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers that came out Friday. The official government numbers from the Conference Board are not nearly as dire. Sentiment levels have
In looking at how high the market can bounce here; we should look at the potential of the technology sector that has been leading the downside. We saw a ferocious rally in March (about 17%) before the 200-day average turned the QQQs back. While the
Maybe, the answer is maybe. Last week I suggested that Crypto and Bitcoin was a Ponzi Scheme. The security regulators official definition can be found here. Let me rephrase. It’s not a Ponzi Scheme (per se), but it is worth only what the next person
A Barron’s article over the weekend based, in part, on some research by Ken Pucker, a senior lecturer at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, suggests investors are not getting better results. Pucker says that ESG funds don’t systematically deliver alpha (excess return relative to
I have featured Research Affiliates articles before and I have discussed factor based investing tilts before. It would seem we are on the cusp of a shift in the underlying economy into a recessionary or at least slow growth phase. What type of stocks historically
One thing we can promise in financial markets is that past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future. Berman’s Call officially launched in its current half hour format in late March 2007. Some may recall that I did a 5-minute interview format that
The history of Fed rate hike cycles and recessions are clear. The FOMC causes every recession by fighting inflation—it’s their mandate. So what makes them think this time they can generate a soft landing with the most complicated combination of debt, demographics and geopolitics we’ve
The history of Fed rate hike cycles and equity market behaviour may be different this time. Cost push inflation is not something the Fed has much control over. Powell told us in his recent testimony to Congress that they have the tools, but we beg
The tragedy of war is difficult from a human toll perspective. I recall having tears in my eyes trying to give investment advice in the days and weeks following September 11, 2001. The lessons of past tragedies remind us to keep focus on your longer-term