When evaluating investment opportunities, I always look at both potential return of being right and risk of being wrong. Far too many people only consider the upside and not the downside. While gold bullion is not technically fixed-income in that it does not pay a
When money comes out of equity markets it typically goes into (the relative safety) of fixed-income markets. The flight to safety (historically) is generally into G7 debt markets and the strongest and larger economies of the US, Germany, and Japan. Switzerland, not an official G-20
It’s not a surprise that I have been in the camp where traditional energy demand would be replaced by low carbon alternatives over time. The vast majority of people believe that we should do something about climate change (me too!!!). So longer-term, the energy sector
We are about 1 year from the 2020 US election. From our view, the market is so focused on US-China trade, it cannot see the forest through the trees. A regime change in the US could have massive market implications that are nowhere near priced
A minority government scenario appears most likely. It’s too close to call according to most polls. The combination of a minority government is also unclear. Markets do not like uncertainty and uncertainty is the most likely outcome. My expectation is in line with that of
As a macro-based investor, I’ve always been much more focused on top down policies and themes that move economies— tax policies, regulations, job growth, environmental impact, all the way to the uncertainty of leadership change— rather than the minutiae of the latest quarterly report. In
The repurchase “repo” market is the function that deals with cash management in the bank-to-bank funding markets. You may have heard there have been some issues in recent weeks. It’s nothing investors need to worry about today, but it will be when the economy gets
The Iranian backed attack by the Houthi Rebels against critical Saudi crude infrastructure is clearly an escalation of negotiating tactics. The US led sanctions since breaking the Iran nuclear deal is economically painful for Iran. We also saw Iran flex their muscle in the Strait
The ECB is expected to cut overnight rates 10 bps to -0.5% and extend their QE bond buying program at this week’s meeting. Outgoing leader Mario “Whatever it Takes Bazooka” Draghi is being replaced by Christine “Whatever it Takes TBD” Lagarde next month. The debate
Buying the dip always makes sense if you want a sleep-at-night type of portfolio rather than buying strength. The question, as always, is what do you buy and when do you buy it? We almost always focus on the S&P 500 because it represents almost
