The history of Fed rate hike cycles and recessions are clear. The FOMC causes every recession by fighting inflation—it’s their mandate. So what makes them think this time they can generate a soft landing with the most complicated combination of debt, demographics and geopolitics we’ve
The history of Fed rate hike cycles and equity market behaviour may be different this time. Cost push inflation is not something the Fed has much control over. Powell told us in his recent testimony to Congress that they have the tools, but we beg
The tragedy of war is difficult from a human toll perspective. I recall having tears in my eyes trying to give investment advice in the days and weeks following September 11, 2001. The lessons of past tragedies remind us to keep focus on your longer-term
Markets are discounting mechanisms and volatility trends are a leading indicator. One of the best indicators for determining market bottoms is the market based pricing of current volatility relative to future volatility. All should know what the VIX indicator measures; often referred to as the
We have not reviewed our PRO-II(EYEs) indicators in a while because there were mostly caution signals, and we generally cover those with our macro comments each week. The lower the risk level, the higher the opportunity. While we think the hawkish policy (fiscal and monetary)
You may have heard me and other suggests that value stocks will likely outperform growth stocks in the inflationary environment we are in. The S&P TSX is a very heavily tilted value index largely due to its lack of info technology and consumer cyclical stocks
The markets did not like the hawkish fedspeak last week. Bond yield ripped higher and are about to break key yield support in the 10-year. The market narrative is debating the 2017-2018 dual policy of rate hikes at the same time they were reducing the
My rule of thumb here, and always, is that you have to fundamentally want to own the stock (or ETF). In our stock selection process, we filter the main ETFs that represent the major indexes and remove the bottom half of the index that does
There is no alternative is the narrative that many talking heads will say when it comes to stocks and 2021 was no exception. Stocks globally are crushing returns on fixed income markets globally. Two benchmark ETFs we follow (VT-Vanguard Total World Stock ETF) and (AGGG-iShares
According to analysts at Bank of America Corp. and EPFR Global, investors have added almost $900 billion into equity exchange-traded and equity funds in 2021. This has surpassed the total from the past 19 years combined. You might say #BTD “Buy the Dip” social media