The tradition on Berman’s Call has been for me to use my last show of the year to forecast what I expect for the coming year and address any mea culpa for bad Berman Calls in 2019. I got the volatility outlook for 2019 all
Category Archives: Behavioural Finance
When evaluating investment opportunities, I always look at both potential return of being right and risk of being wrong. Far too many people only consider the upside and not the downside. While gold bullion is not technically fixed-income in that it does not pay a
When money comes out of equity markets it typically goes into (the relative safety) of fixed-income markets. The flight to safety (historically) is generally into G7 debt markets and the strongest and larger economies of the US, Germany, and Japan. Switzerland, not an official G-20
“We have a bond market where one-quarter of the universe trades at a negative yield. The long bond yield just went negative in Germany [the entire yield curve in Switzerland has been negative for a while]. Over half the world’s bond market is trading below
Last episode we wrote about the rapid decline in earnings outlooks for the S&P 500. We focus on this benchmark because it represents about 40% of the world equity market capitalization and houses most of the largest companies in the world. The US market is
I recall the Barron’s round table discussion in the January 2008 issue where the majority of panelists were very optimistic on the outlook for 2008 earnings as the Great Recession was digging in. What investors need to understand is that Wall Street is always painting
As a global relative value or growth at a reasonable price investor, I’m always looking around the world for the best potential returns adjusted for risk. One of the formulas I use for calculating return relative to risks consists of 3 parts. Capital Gain\Loss potential
The most ridiculous central bank comment of the day so far has come from Europe. ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said today that “a negative yield in the German 10 yr bund yield has more to do with excess savings than it has to
One of the presentations I’m looking forward to later today at the Inside ETFs conference is called the hidden gems. Presenters have been invited to show their best ideas in a rapid-fire segment that will leave you with fresh ideas for your portfolios. There are
If you haven’t heard me say this 100x before, or are just tuning in to hear what yet another one of these “talking heads” thinks is sure to happen in markets – let me disappoint again – NO ONE KNOWS what will happen next in