It’s not a secret that gold equities have been a relative disappointment for the past several decades. The peak in relative value (the ratio of gold equities to the value of gold bullion: lower chart) peaked in the mid 1990s. The reason is relatively straight
There was a high degree of fanfare this past week on the 10-year anniversary of the Lehman moment. For me, this was the defining moment when Congress and the world realized that the financial system was at risk. It stirs up some wild emotions for
I last looked at this topic back on April 30th and I thought with all the talk about the strong US$ and some misinformation (opinion) I have heard in recent weeks, I thought I should update you with my thoughts (facts) on the subject. Recall
Last week a very influential US Bank CEO (Jamie Dimon) warned that longer-term US interest rates would be rising significantly. I think he’s out to lunch. He does see the equity bull market extending 2 to 3 more years and thinks the economy is strong
In the past few weeks Canada has taken a back seat on trade related foreign policy. Incoming Mexico president Lopez Obrador is very interested in doing a trade deal sooner than later even though he officially takes the reigns after the US November elections. The
Trump’s troops were out in full force on the Sunday talk show circuit pumping the 4% GDP number that was reported for Q2 on Friday. First, the one-time items not to be repeated like the surge in soybean purchases and the tax cut induced jump
Market breadth analysis is a key factor in determining the probability of a trend continuing. Much of what I try to do when evaluating market risk is to assess a probability of the market going up versus going down over my time horizon, which tends
For me, revenue growth tells us much more about the quality of the market than does earnings growth. You can’t fudge revenues, though don’t tell that to Enron and Worldcom executives. Top line revenue growth is expected to be good for the next few quarters,
According to Mark Hulbert of Financial Digest fame, a sentiment based independent based analyst firm, the single best (long-term 10 years) predictor of future returns is equity share of household assets. These data can be followed (annually) on the Federal Reserve Board of St. Louis
The organization that is the Central Bank of Central Banks just published another update on its views on cryptocurrencies that can be read here. I took the following quote out of the report as a starting point for my analysis: “The essence of good money