As a follow up to this week’s Globe and Mail article, I wanted to look at evaluating longer-term market risk from the perspective on what is called global macro investing. Looking at known event risks and assessing what impact their outcome might have on various
I’ve been suggesting for years that the debt and deficits are increasingly going to hurt economic growth. I’m fearful that the Liberal budget coming down this week will only make things worse for Canada in relation to our major U.S. trading partner. The government will
This week I will be addressing the Manning Centre Conference in Ottawa on the topic of debt, demographics and the long-term implications for Canada. Having followed global financial markets for the past three decades, I’ve seen several bulls and bears. The one thing that has
The Trump bump in the market since the U.S. election last year has been one of the most debated topics in business media history. He won, in part, because Congress has the lowest approval rating in history, and people wanted change. We need dramatic change
The outlook for the S&P 500 in 2017 is probably not as rosy as the post Trump rally would suggest. The sentiment around the increased profitability of US companies with the corporate tax cuts is somewhat misguided. According to data prepared by the Bank Credit
One always needs to tweak the current forecast for unknowns. Enter the Trump administration and the general “animal spirits” that have been released as it pertains to expectations for lower taxes, higher government spending and job growth. So how much are those “animal spirits” –
You have heard by now that Justin Trudeau and Donald Trump hope to start “infrastructure banks” and that they will boost the economy… Don’t just get caught up in the rhetoric or the trade of the day. Look through the ETF and see what you
It turns out a great many of the protesters, sporting “not my President” banners, around America this week actually didn’t vote at all. Now they’re upset about the outcome? Sorry kids, that’s how democracy works, you have to stand up and be counted BEFORE the
According to popular U.S. statistician Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com, the odds of a Clinton White House were down to 65.6 per cent when I wrote this article (on Friday, Nov 4th). Two weeks ago, before the latest e-mail saga, Hillary Clinton was pushing 90 per cent
In this week’s Globe and Mail: “When the people who make the decision to move rates do not know where they will be, who does?” For the record, here is what the Federal Reserve “dot plot” looks like, in which the members of the FED