Category Archives: Economics & Fundamentals

Chinese Credit Risk Rising

The bull market from 2003 to 2007 was led by dramatic growth in US housing and dramatic growth in China. The Chinese boom drove the demand for commodities and was the major catalyst in the previous cycle. A few weeks ago, Google (GOOGL Alphabet) surpassed

The Canadian Dollar May Be Close to a Bottom

The last time our three key Canadian dollar indicators lined up like this, the Canadian dollar rallied from 67 cents to 80 cents in early 2016. The most stable longer-term driver of the Canadian-U.S. Dollar exchange rate is the interest rate differential between short-term bond

What are the Most Important Considerations When Investing Globally?

We get many questions on foreign currency hedging. When investing globally in developed markets, currency is often the most important consideration in the difference in returns. With the French election uncertainty mostly behind us and most strategists suggesting Europe is getting stronger, what is the

Why I Just Bought a Bunch of Oil ETFs This Week

As I scan the ETF world each day to look for good value, there are not many places to find it. So, despite my long-term view that energy prices are at best range bound, dividends are now attractive again on a risk-adjusted basis, compared to

The Liquidity Trap: Can Interest Rates Normalize?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week and word is they will begin planning how to reduce the balance sheet. Yellen has long said the Fed has a plan to do this. At a high level, the US economy has been growing at

Home Capital Group: Don’t try to catch a falling knife

I’ve been asked a dozen times in the past few days about Home Capital Group. My look at it combines some fundamental, technical, and a general understanding of the housing market. Conclusion: Avoid the stock because there are going concern issues. Speculators love to catch

The Best Way to Diversify Your Portfolio

The only free lunch on Wall Street is diversification. Putting assets in your portfolio that can help reduce your risk is the prudent thing to do.  For 15 years, analysts and strategists have been telling you to be bearish on bonds – that prices would

The Canadian Dollar: To Hedge or Not to Hedge?

Last week Bank of Canada Governor Poloz tossed a bit of a curveball to investors. There is no doubt the unbelievable Canadian employment numbers have been improving. When I say unbelievable I mean not credible, rather than “wow they have been so impressive”. Despite the