Last week we discussed the extreme bullish readings in the AAII Sentiment survey. Statistically, the difference between the bulls and the bears was at the 95% confidence interval. Historically, this marks an extreme condition and on average, the probability of return over the next year
My approach to markets are mostly about understanding the probabilities of upside returns versus downside risks. In this regard, 2020 provides clarity with the benefit of hindsight. In a recession like we have experienced, this would be the first one since records began, where we
Over the past decade, outside of a handful of large technology companies, earnings per share (EPS) growth has, in part, been a function of financial engineering (by way of share buybacks). All this is made possible by low interest rates. As governments continue to pile
Gold equity analysts just do not believe that gold prices are going to stay high. The 18 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Barrick Gold Corp have a median target of 34.52, with a high estimate of 47.00 and a low estimate of 30.00. The
So how do you play the uncertain election outcome. Here’s what I’m doing in my (non-public) client portfolios. Most standard mutual funds cannot do these types of strategies. They typically fall in to the category called alternatives. Ratio put spreads This is a technique that
There is little doubt that when you are not paying for a service, you are the product. Have a look at the SOCL Global X Social Media ETF and the top holdings. How many of these services do you use? Ask yourself how much you
Predictit is a crowdsource betting site that uses Vegas type betting odds to take wagers on outcomes. What we are hearing and seeing in the local election ground games seem quite different. And then there is the major trust factor in the polling that was
We are going to get another stimulus bill. We think Trump needs it more than Dems to keep the stock market supported on Nov 3rd. History suggests the markets do not like the potential for the incumbent to lose the elections and the uncertainty of
According to Wikipedia: The Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution was adopted on July 9, 1868, as one of the Reconstruction Amendments. Arguably one of the most consequential amendments, it addresses citizenship rights and equal protection under the law and was proposed in response
The amount of options bought for expiry this week is some of the big tech names like AAPL and TSLA are huge. When an option is bought, the market maker typically hedges by buying the underlying stock. When the option expires, that hedge gets sold