Liberty Street Economics is the research arm of the New York Federal Reserve Bank. In August, they conducted their monthly survey of consumer expectations (since June 2013). They ask about many aspects of consumer behaviour, but here they focused on short and intermediate inflation expectations.
As a value and growth at a reasonable price manager we are challenged by markets that have stretched valuations. One measure that is at all time extremes (for the S&P 500) is the price of the market relative to sales. The following is an excerpt
The Fed is inching closer to reducing stimulus (debt monetization). We expect the first taper will come in Q4. The plan will likely reduce $15B per month over the course of 8 annual FOMC meetings so that the Federal Reserve will not buy anymore Treasuries
The Fed is inching closer to reducing stimulus (debt monetization). Congress is getting antsy about all the spending, but knows that an infrastructure bill is needed. The progressive Left in the House wants even more. Deficits going forward will be north of one trillion annually
The Federal Reserve has started to talk about removing extraordinary accommodation. Market expectations are building for the reduction in stimulus to begin in September with the forward guidance to come out of the Jackson Hole conference. Likely, they will first reduce support for mortgage-backed securities.
Treasury Secretary Yellen said after her return from the G-7 finance minister’s meeting that President Biden should push forward with his $4 trillion spending plans “even if we ended up with a slightly higher interest rate environment it would actually be a plus for society’s
Early in my career when I was studying for the Chartered Market Technician’s accreditation (CMT) the level 3 requirement was to write a (Thesis) research paper. Mine was based on a combination of fundamentals and technical inputs that I created to use in evaluation the
My approach to markets are mostly about understanding the probabilities of upside returns versus downside risks. In this regard, 2020 provides clarity with the benefit of hindsight. In a recession like we have experienced, this would be the first one since records began, where we
The Bank of Canada has an excellent webpage that can help investors understand what factors move the Canadian dollar. Canada is about 3% of the equity world and about 5% of the bond world, so the majority of investment opportunity resides in foreign currencies. This
I was saddened and mortified to hear the story of Alex Kearns. For years I have been talking about the emotional cost of investing and spending lots of time in the educational part of the show to drive home this important topic. I have heard