I’ve written about the Value Line Geometric Average before and what it represents. I recommend readers review the following to get a better understanding. The geometric average better represents the realized return that most investors experience from the average stock. For the US markets, the
Super Tuesday March 3 is the big primary kick-off for candidates in the democratic leadership race where about one-third of delegates are decided. With Buttigieg dropping out Sunday night (and Steyer on Saturday), it appears that the motivation was to help Biden on Super Tuesday. DJT
I’ve read several research reports in the past weeks about the COVID-19 impact on supply chains and the human toll. We are all guessing—educated guesses, but guesses nonetheless. We learn a valuable lesson from Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise about prediction of
When money comes out of equity markets it typically goes into (the relative safety) of fixed-income markets. The flight to safety (historically) is generally into G7 debt markets and the strongest and larger economies of the US, Germany, and Japan. Switzerland, not an official G-20
It’s not a surprise that I have been in the camp where traditional energy demand would be replaced by low carbon alternatives over time. The vast majority of people believe that we should do something about climate change (me too!!!). So longer-term, the energy sector
We are about 1 year from the 2020 US election. From our view, the market is so focused on US-China trade, it cannot see the forest through the trees. A regime change in the US could have massive market implications that are nowhere near priced
A minority government scenario appears most likely. It’s too close to call according to most polls. The combination of a minority government is also unclear. Markets do not like uncertainty and uncertainty is the most likely outcome. My expectation is in line with that of
As a macro-based investor, I’ve always been much more focused on top down policies and themes that move economies— tax policies, regulations, job growth, environmental impact, all the way to the uncertainty of leadership change— rather than the minutiae of the latest quarterly report. In
The repurchase “repo” market is the function that deals with cash management in the bank-to-bank funding markets. You may have heard there have been some issues in recent weeks. It’s nothing investors need to worry about today, but it will be when the economy gets
The Iranian backed attack by the Houthi Rebels against critical Saudi crude infrastructure is clearly an escalation of negotiating tactics. The US led sanctions since breaking the Iran nuclear deal is economically painful for Iran. We also saw Iran flex their muscle in the Strait