Rolling back the clock a few years to the Bernanke taper tantrum in 2013 and the Fed’s forecast for interest rate hikes; it is clear that they suffer from an increasing loss of credibility. The academic establishment is slowly coming around to the fact that
As the markets now enter a period of high volatility, I ponder whether they are sensing the onset of the next recession. It’s almost certain that we will see a global recession within the next two years. The history of U.S. recessions shows the range
The last few months witnessed the lowest period of volatility in decades for the S&P 500. Until Friday, we hadn’t seen so much as a 1% (daily) change in over 2 months. Bollinger Bands are a technical indicator that measure market volatility. Here’s how they
Last week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz flipped on his recent bias that the Canadian economy was strengthening – though he does expect a second-half bounce back from the Fort McMurray wildfires. “Recency bias” is a psychological phenomenon where people overweight more recent events
As markets continue to flirt with all-time-highs, corporate earnings fade, and valuation multiples approach levels not seen since Alan Greenspan called the market “irrationally exuberant” in 1996. Of course that was then, and this is now. In this week’s Globe and Mail piece we take
In this week’s Globe and Mail article, Larry discusses the dichotomy between the recent low volatility we’ve seen in markets and the very high risk that we’re facing as markets make new highs. Many don’t seem to really understand that risk is a four-letter-word until
The divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and Europe, Japan, and Canada suggests that the U.S. dollar should strengthen notably over the next year. The developed market trade weighted U.S. dollar index’s most important currency pair is the euro and Canada is only 9.1
Janet Yellen will spin her Fedspeak on Aug. 26 at the annual Jackson Hole conference. Investors worldwide will scour the text for hints at what the future holds. In the past, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC, a.k.a. Federal Open Mouth Committee) bosses have used the
What does Shiller PE (Price-to-Earnings) Ratio Tells us About Current Market Valuation? As all 3 major US markets enter uncharted territory, should you be thrilled and sitting pretty, or concerned and thinking about protecting what you’ve gained? One can’t make money in markets by being a
The S&P 500 made a new all-time high in early July. Less than 20% of the stocks in the S&P 500 made new highs as the index broke out. Historically, 20% or more is a sign of a broader market advance; technically we call this